The SAG Awards threw a wrench or two in the awards race today and we are feeling very gitty about it.  Lots of moving pieces and analysis to make so here we go:
Best Ensemble correlating to Best Picture
The long-running stat that a Best Picture winner hasn't been crowned without a SAG Ensemble nomination since 1995's "Braveheart," the first year that SAG existed, is still looking intact BUT it's not that simple.  If you were paying attention, Steven Spielberg's "The Post" was shut out of the nominations today, but after checking in with a few SAG voters, nearly all of them expressed that they DID NOT receive screeners for voting.  This would explain the donut but most importantly, it's likely the one opportunity for the statistic to die.

As "The Post" continues to catch heat, especially after nabbing six Golden Globe nominations, it's not over by a long shot.  I will say, Greta Gerwig's "Lady Bird" has just made a compelling case that it could very well win Best Picture in March, and that's a win for everyone.

In other notes, "The Big Sick" bounced back after missing out on the Globes while "Get Out" proves strength with two nominations.  "Mudbound" and "Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri" are still within arms reach of nominations and could even start making cases for themselves to be "the one" in the end, especially the latter.

And then there's "The Florida Project" and "The Shape of Water" that missed today, that seemed all but assured spots.  What does it all mean for them?
The Acting Nominees
There were dings across the board, in every category.  Beginning with Best Actor, the Daniel Day-Lewis snub was expected as they didn't receive screeners for "Phantom Thread" in time for voting.  He should still translate accordingly to an Oscar nomination in the end.

Timothee Chalamet landed a much needed SAG nomination but co-star Armie Hammer was mysteriously omitted from Supporting Actor for "Call Me by Your Name" and I can't fathom why.  We can't blame it on screeners or anything of the sorts.  The only plausible reason is a vote-split with co-star Michael Stuhlbarg but after we saw both men from "Three Billboards" make the cut, SAG knows how to check two boxes. If you ask me, "Call Me by Your Name" took the biggest beating of the day awards-wise.

With Meryl Streep out of the SAG conversation due to screeners, it's interesting that the next go to person was Judi Dench in "Victoria and Abdul" over Jessica Chastain ("Molly's Game") and especially Emma Stone, considering they nominated Steve Carell for "Battle of the Sexes."  In Carell's case, I'm getting serious "Christian Bale-American Hustle" vibes as he's scored BFCA, Globe, and SAG, and we don't seem to be paying attention at all.  With another acclaimed performance in "Last Flag Flying," which they seem to care less about now, he may become a default-like choice for them to make.

"Dunkirk" pulled a donut today, which even I predicted, is still surprising.  Mark Rylance's nomination road is not lost but there's serious debris on the ground.  He'll need BAFTA to pick him up.

Octavia Spencer's miss in Supporting Actress was significant as was the Cast Ensemble snub for "The Shape of Water."  Is Hong Chau ("Downsizing") and/or Holly Hunter ("The Big Sick") better suited for the nomination?  Chau could wreak of a Daniel Bruhl, Maria Bello, Idris Elba-type contender that gets everything she needs before missing in the end.  Hunter could be the representation of "The Big Sick" if it can't find room in other categories like Original Screenplay and Best Picture.

And then there's Denzel Washington in "Roman J. Israel, Esq."  Some will say, "it's SAG, this is what they do."  Others will say, "it means something."  Though some are not big on the film itself, his performance is well liked and he just narrowingly lost last year for "Fences."  With Daniel Kaluuya on the table for "Get Out," Lead Actor has just turned into a competitive little race (at least nomination-wise).  And even though they haven't nabbed anything yet, Jake Gyllenhaal ("Stronger"), Christian Bale ("Hostiles"), and Robert Pattinson ("Good Time") are waiting in the wings for that obligatory "WTF? Nomination" we get every now and again (i.e. Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah").
What do the predictions say now?
"Lady Bird," for the first time this year, is #1 in Best Picture and it looks and feels right.  With that, Christopher Nolan has been dropped from the Best Director lineup for the time being.  This is the case with Nolan often, as it looks to be "his time" and he comes up short.  DGA and PGA could change all of that but he seems flimsy at the moment.  The film DID score a Stunt Ensemble mention today so all is not lost.

Gary Oldman and Willem Dafoe hold on to their top spots while Margot Robbie and Laurie Metcalf seem to have strong #2's and #3's on their tails

Oscar Predictions have been updated to reflect the new nominations and we trek forward toward January 23.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

| MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
| LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
| PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
| ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
| FOREIGN LANGUAGE | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE |

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