The $200m Warhol that will test the art market
Andy Warhol - Shot Sage Blue Marilyn - 1964
Next May, Christie's will auction in New York one of Andy Warhol's four "Shot Marilyns", a work carrying a presale estimate of around $200 million.
G. Fernández · theartwolf.com · Image: Andy Warhol, “Shot Sage Blue Marilyn” (1964) acrylic and silkscreen ink on linen, 101.6 x 101.6 cm.
As the global economy, which seemed to be recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, trembles at the possible consequences of the escalation of the Russian-initiated war in Ukraine, the art market seems to remain untouched by fears and uncertainties. The strength shown by auctions this March (including an $80 million Magritte) is now joined by what could be the big blockbuster of the year, and perhaps the most valuable work to come to auction since the legendary sale of the "Salvator Mundi" attributed to Leonardo da Vinci in 2017.
The art market is looking for icons, and there has never been a better icon-maker, nor a more skilful pictorial publicist, than Andy Warhol, the self-styled art machine, the man who made Pop Art his own philosophy of life. Of all his "appropriations", none is as well-known as the image of Marilyn Monroe, taken from the publicity poster for the film Niagara (1953). And among all the Marilyns, and with the exception of the Diptych on display at Tate Modern, none is as famous as the four "shot" Marilyns, four square canvases of approximately one metre on each side that were shot by performance artist Dorothy Podber (1932-2008) at the mythical "The Factory" in Manhattan.
From the Thomas and Doris Ammann Foundation, "Shot Sage Blue Marilyn" is one of these four "shot" Marilyns, which guarantees its iconic status and justifies (at least in part) the extraordinary pre-sale estimate (personally, I do not remember such a high pre-sale valuation on a work of art, not even the aforementioned "Salvator Mundi").
Predictably, Christie's has been unstinting in its praise of the painting, calling it  in the words of Alex Rotter, Christie's Chairman for 20th and 21st Century Art- "the most significant 20th century painting to come to auction in a generation" and even making some highly debatable comparisons. "Standing alongside Botticelli's 'The Birth of Venus', Da Vinci's 'La Gioconda' and Picasso's 'Les Demoiselles d'Avignon', Warhol's 'Marilyn' is categorically one of the greatest paintings of all time".
In any case, will this painting live up to the expectations? Provided that the economic situation does not suffer a major blow in the next two months, it may well do so. In 2018, another of the "shot marilyns", the orange-backed version, arguably the most iconic of the four, was sold privately for a price of "more than $200 million". The turquoise version (the only one not shot by Dorothy Podber) was sold in 2007 for around $80 million.

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