American media claim that the Ukraine crisis may be the beginning of a new Cold War. Barack Obama had responded to such claims: "It's not a new Cold War. What it is, is a very specific issue related to Russia's unwillingness to recognize that Ukraine can chart its own path, he explained. After a series of cautious measures, the EU took economic and financial sanctions against Russia this week. So did the US. This is clearly no Cold War and demonizing Russian President Vladimir Putin is not the solution. Understanding Putin's strategies and motivation helps though.
No Cold War
The upcoming issue of TIME, the weekly US journal with the highest circulation among US political print media, shows a small image of a walking Russian President Vladimir Putin on its cover page. His shadow has the shape of an airplane. The cover, all in red, states in bold capital letters: Cold War II. In just one picture there is a direct link being established between Putin, his involvements with pro-Russian rebels and in the shooting down of the civilian airplane over eastern Ukraine in which 293 passengers died.
In his lead piece for the same issue of TIME magazine Simon Shuster argues that Putin's support for the pro-Russian separatists suspected of downing the civilian aircraft MH17 was met with neither a harsh EU response nor by a US one. A lack of threats and deadlines by the West led to Putin's ever-rising boldness. This is consistent analysis and it contains a grain of truth.
However, no Cold War is in the making and the West can do little but fire back slowly and moderately. The Cold War was a time of two superpowers, the Soviet Union with Russia at its core, and the US. The former represented the communist bloc, standing for suppression and totalitarian rule. The US was the beacon of the free world and with the fall of the communists came the winner of this political standoff. This is as far as Western story telling goes. One idea prevailed in these dark times: deter the enemy by the power of total destruction.
Current Reality
This is clearly not the times we are in. Russia's decision to invade Crimea and to support pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine's east deeply destabilizes Ukraine. Both the EU's and even the US responses to install some tougher sanctions are months late. However, the West is not yet in an aggressive mood with the Kremlin. US sanctions will not take much of a toll because Russia is not an important trading partner. EU sanctions seem more significant, though, since the EU is Russia's number one trading partner.
But the pressure on Putin and his regime is way off fully-blown economic sanctions. The arms embargo will apply to new contracts, so the French can carry on with closing their 1.2 billion Euro sale of two Mistral naval assault ships with Moscow. The biggest chunk of trade between the European trade bloc and Russia is energy but EU sanctions in this field will cover only high-technology exports.
This is a tiny share of energy trade. And finally, only Russian state banks will be facing difficulties to access capital on European markets. In short, neither the EU nor the US is heading for a standoff. Russia's economy is far too intertwined with those of the 28 EU countries. And the US is not going to risk getting deeply involved in military operations in Ukraine. The underlying fear is the sparking of WW III.
Psychogramming Putin
As much as the Cold War claim is a useless reflex, it makes sense to find out who Putin is and what's next on his menu. Newsweek, another major weekly US journal, showed Putin in black and white on its cover page. Putin is wearing sunglasses which mirror explosions, and the headline reads "The Pariah". Such a demonization of Putin is forlorn hope and fruitless. What makes sense is presenting revelations about his mindset and trying to predict his strategies and next moves. Media has the function to also inform decision-takers and that's what Western media should do right now.
The Washington Post and the New Statesman both argue that once Putin feels under pressure, he will be most dangerous. The British journalist Ben Judah had been gathering information for three consecutive years about Putin's real life, how the man behind the Russian Empire lives from day to day. This found its way into the Newsweek issue which demonizes Putin. Judah depicts Putin as a lonely man who works late into the night and is called "The Tsar" by his entourage.
US media are facing the same difficulties as Western decision-makers in coming to terms with current Russian foreign policy. Given Russia's continuous backing of the rebels in eastern Ukraine, even after the downing of the Malaysian civil aircraft, the West stumbled. The US and the EU slowly accept the reality and are looking for solutions. Understanding Putin's psychology is a first step in the right direction.
http://http//old.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=12552
