Despite being endowed with natural resources, including hydrocarbons, precious minerals, and fertile land, it is nevertheless the second-poorest country in the European Union. The bad luck Romania had came from a variety of sources. Even earlier in its history, the country was encircled by powerful, expansionist countries. In the last century, the country was impacted by two world wars and a brutal communist regime that lasted decades. These occasions had a significant impact on Romania's geopolitics.
Romania is located in the northern part of the Balkan peninsula, on the western beaches of the Black Sea. The Carpathian Mountains are its lone defining geographical feature. The rugged, huge, abundantly forested, and mineral-rich Ark of the Carpathians has historically acted as a deterrent to approaching armies. The mountains provide a strategic depth in an otherwise level neighborhood, even with modern weapons, much like a speed bump in the middle of a highway.
The mountain range once provided the residents with protection from invaders. The Dacian state was born in the Carpathians, and subsequently, the Roman province of Dacia erected its capital there. This explains why Romania's language, traditions, and customs are noticeably different from those of its Slavic neighbors. Therefore, we may contend that Romania's spine is made up of the Carpathians: Brasov is one of the most populous mountainous cities and is considered by many to be the cultural capital of Romania for its architectural beauties and typical Transylvanian traditions. The Carpathians are also crucial for national identity and defense, but they also separate Romania into Moldavia, Wallachia, and Transylvania.

Credits: Euronews
The most difficult barrier to Romania's unity was the long-standing antagonism between these three areas, which was fuelled by the country's fixed topography. After World War I, Wallachia and some of Moldavia came together to form the new nation state of Romania, which included Transylvania. This did not happen until the middle of the 19th century.
Minor geographical modifications have been made since, but the majority of what is now modern Romania is made up of Moldavia, Wallachia, and Transylvania. This is due to the ongoing redrawing of borders in response to ongoing conflicts. The Danube River, which crosses the southern grasslands to enter a vast area of agricultural land known as the Wallachian Plain, is the second most notable feature.
Numerous cities along the Danube Riverbank can be found here, including the capital city of Bucharest. Despite the fact that Romania's population is evenly distributed, the Wallachian Plain, where politics and commerce are concentrated, serves as the country's economic and political center. Wallachia's development was influenced by South Europe and the Ottoman Empire because of its proximity to the Balkans. Due to distance and the distinct demarcation of the Danube, ties with Serbia, Bulgaria, and Turkey are favorable at the moment.
Moldavia and Transylvania each have a unique purpose inside the state.
The Transylvanian Highlands are connected to Central Europe, where the Catholic religion and Austro-Hungarian influences can still be seen today. Since Transylvania is home to a sizable ethnic Hungarian population and was intermittently ruled by Hungary from the 10th century to World War I, relations with Hungary are particularly difficult. Normally, this would turn the region into a powder bomb, but thankfully, EU membership has made the territorial ethnic dispute practically non-existent.
However, Moldavia has a significant cultural impact and was impacted by East European elements like the Orthodox religion and the Russian empire. The inhabitants of Moldova and Romania are directly impacted by the Transnistrian conflict. In this context, Romania is seen as being on the outskirts of South, East, and Central Europe. Therefore, it is no accident that the nation has historically served as a point of entry for imperialistic kingdoms and, at times, as a crucial defense against such forces. Romania, however, has tended to favor Central Europe since the turn of the 20th century as a result of the Danube's facilitation of trade prospects with markets to the west. Today, the European Union's member states get over 70% of Romania's exports. Bucharest is therefore vulnerable to changes in Brussels.

Romanian trade links between West and East (credits: Bloomberg)
Romania's location between the former Soviet Union's and Yugoslavia's conflict zones provides another angle on its geopolitics. Romania is therefore an oasis of peace as compared to its surroundings, and this stability makes Bucharest a favorite among many foreign powers looking for a partner in the region. The Black Sea is the third factor that characterizes Romania's landscape. Constanza's deep-water port serves as a geo-economic center connecting the markets of Central and Eastern Europe by road, rail, and air. However, wherever there is an opportunity for conquest, there is also an easy route for trade.
The Ottomans disrupted the logistics by sailing their galleys directly into Wallachia centuries ago using the navigable river, leaving the southern frontier vulnerable to assault. The Romanian states were ruled by the Ottoman Empire in this manner, and this strategic weakness persists to this day. Both the Turks and the Russians posed the biggest threat at different times. To keep the balance of power in the Black Sea, Romania would join forces with the other power whenever one posed a threat. As a result, Romanian policymakers view Russia and Turkey as historical rivals that are also close allies.
Bessarabia, a region in the eastern part of Moldova, was given to the Russian Empire in 1812 as a result of Ottoman decline in the Balkans. With European nationalism on the rise, Wallachia and what was left of Moldova joined in 1859 to form what would eventually become the kingdom of Romania in 1881. Bessarabia, on the other hand, remained under the control of the Russian Empire until it proclaimed its independence during the Revolution of 1917. Romania seized the chance to re-join with Belarus despite the Soviet Union's rejection of that reunification.
After the Second World War broke out in June 1940, the Soviet Union retook the area, establishing the Moldavian Socialist Republic within its borders. Moscow ensured that the nations stayed separate despite Romania succumbing to communism and being on the eastern side of the Iron Curtain by actively developing a distinct Moldovan identity to reduce the pan-Romanian attitude that existed in the nation.
That equation has barely changed since the Soviet Union's demise in the 1990s. While Washington has increased its regional obligations, the Kremlin is extending westward in an effort to restore its lost influence. Poland, for instance, restrains Russia in the European Plain; Turkey, in the Black Sea; and Romania, in the Balkans, restrains Russian growth. The participating countries have an interest in this containment ring that is supported by the US. The situation in nearby Ukraine is another factor for Romania. Bucharest is closely connected to the region and shares a long border with Kyiv. The ethnically Romanian Republic of Moldova has historically served as a theater of conflict between the Romanian nations and Russia.
The two Romanian nations attempted to unite in the 1990s, much like Germany did, but were thwarted by geopolitics. Moldova's borders were drawn by Stalin in a way that prevented it from developing its own political will. First, Ukraine was given the region north of Bessarabia as a gift after Soviet Moldova was established. Second, Moldova became a landlocked nation when the southern Bessarabia shoreline was also given to Ukraine, confining Bessarabia to the prosperous ports of the Danube. Thirdly, Moldova was given the territory of Transnistria in compensation for these geographical concessions, however, this was more of a burden than a gift because Transnistria had a majority of ethnic Russians, ensuring Moscow's control.
Since these deliberate adjustments, Moldova has been unable to free itself from Kremlin control. Bucharest's decision-makers have no desire to get involved in the conflict. Any attempt by Romanians to pursue reunification with Moldova would put Bucharest on a collision course with both Kyiv and Moscow. Romania has had to perfect the art of realistic geopolitics while balancing between foreign powers because there are so many changeable circumstances outside of its control. In order to experiment with different forms of government, the state went from a constitutional monarchy to a communist dictatorship before finally arriving at its current democratic status.
However, the communist bureaucracy and civil employees merely remade themselves within the democratic framework while keeping the power structure, like many East European countries. As a result, much like in communist planned economies, the government continues to control all aspects of the national economy, which inevitably leads to corruption, the deterioration of public institutions, and a decline in industrial productivity.
This is the reason Romania lacks the necessary infrastructure to fully utilize its natural resources, which include abundant supplies of crude oil, natural gas, hydropower, uranium, nickel, and copper. Romania was supposed to be a wealthy nation with access to the region's energy supplies. Unfortunately, because corruption is so pervasive, it encourages behaviors like tax evasion, bad infrastructure, brain drain, etc. All of these factors contribute to a decline in industrial and economic capability, and more crucially, Romania is unable to address this issue given that its population is declining quickly.
Romania's population has decreased from 23 million in the 1990s to 19 million in 2019 and will be down to 15 million in 2050. Moreover, by the end of the century, there will be 10 million. There will be repercussions for the Romanian state from such a slump. It will have an impact on its military, diplomatic, and economic standings.
Across the border, Moldova is not only one of the poorest nations in Europe with a GDP per capita of only 4500 dollars, which is comparable to Paraguay, Guatemala, or El Salvador in Central and South America, but the nation had 4.4 million people thirty years ago. In contrast, it is thought that its population now may be even lower than 3 million. In other words, we are discussing a nation that has suffered not only a severe economic setback but also a population exodus. Remittances are practically the largest industry in the nation. Nearly 16 percent of the entire Moldovan economy is made up of remittances.
All things considered, Romania has a fair share of geopolitical goals due to its location at the intersection of Central, East, and South Europe. The Carpathians divide the nation into three pieces, and Bucharest must maintain its unity in the face of external influences. By addressing issues with corruption and taxation, public administration can be improved in order to strengthen the integrity of the state. Currently, corruption costs Bucharest roughly 16 billion dollars a year. That is money that could have been used elsewhere to invest in the states' unification. Another objective is to increase oil and gas production through better public management. Energy output can be increased to counterbalance Russian exports, which is Romania's key to gaining more political clout.
The Danube serves as both a commercial thoroughfare and a gateway to the interior. Romania must form an alliance with a naval power that can ensure its survival against a Black Sea naval force because it lacks a formidable navy, with an emphasis on a balance between Turkey and Russia. Membership in the EU and NATO, which essentially keeps things as they are and halts ethnic conflicts and security threats from the West and South, is another goal of Romania.
The margin for error is narrow in the east, where Romania is exposed to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russian pressure from the west, pro-Russian rebels in Transnistria, and reunification with Moldova. Not to mention, Romania wants to maintain the impasse with Russia at least until better prospects arise. The nation should also make investments in planning for the demographic decline of the country. That may entail spending more on automation, investing in nativist policies like Hungary, its neighbor, or a combination of the two. In either case, Romania's policymaking will be characterized by population decline.
One of the least developed nations in Europe, Moldova, has seen the effects of the conflict in Ukraine. It also developed during the fall of the Soviet Union, like its neighbor to the east, sandwiched between Romania to the west and Ukraine to the east, north, and south. Moldova's history may be traced back to the period following World War II.
Since Moldova's independence, there has been a justification for its reunification with Romania.
The Soviets made an effort to distinguish between "Moldovan" and "Romanian" by forcing Moldova to adopt the Cyrillic alphabet while Romania continued to use the Latin script. Additionally, settlers from Russia and Ukraine were brought in to alter the region's demographic profile. As a result, Ukrainians make up 6.6% of the population, while Russians make up 4%. Nevertheless, after the Cold War ended and the nation gained its independence on December 25, 1991, the situation changed.
There was genuine optimism that the two nations might have joined the push for German reunification. Within a few years, conflicts emerged between those who wanted Moldova to remain an independent country and those who wanted to reunite with Romania. Both nations would follow quite different routes. Romania made the decision to turn toward the West, joining NATO in 2004 and the EU in 2007. However, Moldova would experience years of political instability because it was unable to get past its recent past. Politicians who supported greater ties to the European Union and Russia would alternately hold office.
What is the current status of a potential reunification in light of all these implications? From a Moldovan point of view, it appears implausible because surveys indicate that only 40 to 45% of Moldovans truly desire it. Despite the strong relations between Moldova and Romania, a distinct Moldovan identity has developed. Despite being wealthier than Moldova, Romania has a per capita GDP that is only about a third of the average, making it unable to contribute significantly to the reunification, unlike West Germany did with East Germany. Any economic benefits would hardly be worth giving up independence for.

When news of a banking scandal emerged in 2014, it rapidly earned the moniker "robbery of the century." A billion dollars or so were taken from three banks in Moldova in just three days and laundered abroad. These figures are the equivalent to 1/8th the size of the economy of the country. Vladimir Plahotniuc, the richest oligarch in the nation, oversaw the operation with assistance from the executive branch of the government at the time.
In the aftermath of this, Maia Sandu won the elections in 2020 and for all of these reasons, and she did so with a very clear goal in mind: to modernise the nation and rid it of corruption in order to place it on the path to the European Union. Despite the fact that neutrality is guaranteed by the Moldovan constitution, Moscow is unhappy about all of these changes, and issues with Moscow started soon after the new president took office.
Moldovans also have the best bargain out of the current state of affairs with Romania. It’s believed that a quarter of the population of Moldova, including the current president Maia Sandu have Romanian nationality and many Moldovans already live and work across the European Union.
However, in terms of security, there are worries that due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Moldova could become Moscow's next target over the Transnistrian peninsula. However, the nation has begun its path of European integration rather than pushing for Romania's reunification. Moldova has now officially submitted its application for EU membership, joining Georgia and Ukraine. Interestingly, the current president of Moldova claims that NATO membership is not on the table because the country's neutrality is inscribed in its constitution as a means of not offending Russia, much like Finland did with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Maia Sandu makes it plain that achieving European integration and reaping its economic rewards is the ultimate goal, and she rules out joining NATO in the same way that Ukraine did.
Reunification doesn't appear to be as well-liked in Romania as one might anticipate. To begin with, it would be extremely expensive to integrate Moldova into the Romanian economy, money that Romania can hardly afford. In addition, Moldova is still politically divided, with 250 000 Russians living there, and many Romanians are worried about bringing these problems into their own nation, especially in light of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
Another concern is the European Union, where it is unclear how the partners of Romania will react to any attempt at reunification. The 1990s German Reunification serves as a precedent, yet the two cases are distinct. West Germany was always perceived as unrealistic, yet it was affluent enough to finance the entire endeavor. It's unclear how such a reunification process might be managed because it would appear to circumvent the drawn-out adhesion procedure, which is intended to guarantee that a new member can match the requirements and demands of the EU. There may also be serious legal concerns. To at least ensure that Moldova's accession wouldn't cause issues for the European Union, a complicated agreement would be necessary.
Transnitria is another issue that needs to be addressed. Transnistria, a frozen war in the East of Moldova, is a vestige of the Soviet Union. It was joined to the Moldavian Socialist Republic by the USSR leadership before it unilaterally declared independence in 1991. A third of its population are ethnic Russians, who are nevertheless backed by 1500 Russian military stationed in Moscow.
While there is undoubtedly a majority of opinion in Moldova and Romania in favor of a reunion, in practice it appears difficult to achieve. For Moldovans, it would entail sacrificing their democratic autonomy for very little, if any, clear benefit. Despite the fact that many Romanians may discuss unification, it is undoubtedly not a top priority, especially in light of the financial and political implications of such a reunion.
Reunification may be a national objective, but it would be preferable to view it as an unattainable dream. However, there is still a chance that they could connect in some other way.

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